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Bankruptcy Greek aid of France

One wonders severely in World and Moreover, the effects of degradation of the rating of government debt by rating agencies.

In this notation, we can not mean much, since it involves the application of valuation methods opaque to the public accounts even more opaque, which would increase Enron for a model of rigor and integrity. We remember for example that 3 years ago, the Greeks decided to become richer 25% overnight by the grace of creative accounting: integrating an estimate of the underground economy in GDP. This single story speaks volumes about the value of the Greek government accounts. Since Enron, there remains only the truth of the cash flow to judge in these circumstances: while the Greek state is afloat, so it all goes well. For the rest, it is not just not. Although some manage to pay handsomely to their ignorance.

This is, cons, sure is that The World wrong to pay, as usual, in the tragic record of deficit-that-will-take-all-we-especially-if-you -must-pay-in-more-for-Greeks. For now, all that is favorable to the French State and its debt.

Why? The reason is simple: there is plenty of liquidity in financial markets. Even if fear is not what it was, the flight to quality has not ceased: investors want of course. And of course, this remains the state public debt seriously. But France is a country seriously. Thus bond prices of the French state has dropped significantly last fall as financial players sold securities unsafe (private) to buy safe government debt, including the French.


The same mechanism is currently taking place: the larger the debt of Greece is risky (as well as some other countries), the more it turns away more investors are moving toward what he are more secure: the debt of states like France.

The interest rates on bonds of the Greek state are negatively correlated with those of French government debt.

thing more astonishing, the current crisis of confidence does not benefit more to Germany than to France. Generally, in such circumstances, the German state is the big winner: nothing seems safer than him. If you buy more French debt, we buy more of the German and the gap between the two interest rate increases, lowering one more than the other. That's what happened in September last year, until January. Here, nothing such spreads even tend to decrease.


Financial markets are certain of one thing: France does not shoed bankruptcy. This is great news: we can continue to finance our debt on the cheap. Let's be optimistic, perhaps even that this will convince them that France is not about to go bankrupt. If financial markets are willing to lend to the interest rate the lowest in decades, is that they must know what they are - not ?

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I have something to tell you ... Excerpts

Hello everyone ...

Already that must tell you: I'm great, I grew a lot, but we always recognize me ... it seems that I look like my dad, especially in the morning: look sharp ( if so ...) and Staila in hair ...

Otherwise, we moved there soon two months, it was difficult at first, but now I feel very well in my new home!

I always have fun with my pals growing at least as much as me: here I am with the round and Garance Camille ... too well!

Anyway The biggest news I wanted to tell you it will be surprising (quoique. ..)

Fun ... (Well, me it makes me laugh)

Suspense .. .

Ta dah !

Oui, bon, you know a number of you already know, but not everyone ... and I like to prepare my small indeed! There will be one more on this blog towards the end of April, but I do not know yet if it will be a little brother or sister ...

Anyway, I'm full of big kisses, soon, and until then ...

is called! ;-)

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The elementary microeconomics tobacco

In 1975, France reached a historic high in tobacco consumption: 7 grams per adult per day, more than half a pack of cigarettes. A large majority of men smoke, and they smoke everywhere and all the time.

Since then, consumption has fallen by 60%, mainly among men.
What is it due? Primarily to elementary microeconomics tobacco: its price rises, its consumption is less strong (and vice versa)-at least from the rising price decided by the government in early 1990. Tobacco addiction causing the most severe among all drugs (heroin alone creates a significant higher), we may even wonder about the existence of the relationship. But microeconomics is true even for junkies.

The decrease in consumption before the price increase, however: between 1975 and 1985, consumption decreased slightly (10%) without the relative price does not change, reminding us that there are other factors at work. However, the increases decided by the government from the late 1980s will cause a drop in consumption, according to a linear relationship, a scheme worthy of microeconomics 1st year.

Finally, between 1985 and 2008, a 200% increase in tobacco prices has led to a halving of consumption. This is far from negligible for a drug highly addictive like tobacco. Moreover, price elasticity increases: the price increase has a much stronger today than 30 years ago. In 2007, an increase of 1% of the same caused a decrease in consumption of 2%!

At least in appearance, because if you look in detail what has happened since 2004, we see strange things happen.

Between 2003 and 2004, the government has decided to increase the highest ever the price of tobacco: 22%. This increase has completely transformed the relationship between price and consumption in subsequent years. Between 2004 and 2006, consumption falls, while the price drop too. Then, between 2006 and 2008, reappears a linear relationship between price and consumption, but located lower than the previous one and with a "slope" lower: for every price level, consumption is lower and any price increase causes a larger decrease in consumption before 2004.

What happened? The answer is pretty obvious: these consumption figures (due to INSEE) are false. This decrease is a statistical illusion due in part to the use of increasingly widespread tobacco imported illegally into France. According to a study doubtful due to a producer, a cigarette in 4 would now be bought abroad. If the price elasticity is high, simply because a price increase now causes both a decrease in consumption but also an increase in illegal imports.

However, I suppose it is another teaching of elementary microeconomics: the cost of smoking is now so high that all make up even more profitable import of illegal cigarettes, despite prohibitive transaction costs ¹ .

__________________________________________

1. Moreover, there has been to create a dual market of nicotine: next to the cigarette market has become a new market, the nicotine "pure" form of "nicorette" and other substitutes. Their effectiveness as a cessation aid seems very relative: there is sustainable consumption of such products, sometimes in conjunction with smoking. So much so that Reynolds considering buying one of the industry leaders. It is, in fact a market whose growth is inversely proportional to that of tobacco. And you can bet that the last increase will restart.

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The fall of the Berlin Wall, a graphic and a link

Chart:



The link.

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During the crisis, bonuses continue

While Western economies experiencing its worst recession in 70 years and the States indebted to the tune of billions of euros to ensure the recovery, the banking sector, which is the cause of this disaster, has again become profitable in part.

More surprisingly, the banks pay bonuses to their employees the best paid, usually working in high risk activities at the origin of the crisis are poised to exceed record levels yet in 2007: they will be approximately 140 billion dollars U.S..

The economic crisis has nothing changed in a fundamental trend: the explosion of salaries in the financial sector, partly due to the bonuses.

A study showed that this tendency was a product of financial liberalization, and could not be fully explained by a change in the characteristics objective of workers in the financial sector, particularly by increasing their relative qualifications. A significant proportion (30 to 50%) of the explosion corresponds to a pure rent that these employees receive the rest of the economy. But

bonuses this year occur in such shock they to The Economist : even banks that are losing money paying them. The U.S. banking sector is, in fact, far from being out of the crisis: Many major players are still in deficit. In particular, 4 of 10 merchant banks of Wall Street bonuses have distributed the more important will not be profitable this year, including Citigroup and Bank of America.

And this is shocking The Economist: while shareholders are losing money, the best-paid employees receive bonuses, expected to reward their performance. In other words, whatever happens, there is or not performance bonuses are there.

Everything happens as if capitalism was walking on its head: the shareholders are losing money, partly because their companies pay substantial bonuses to employees not fully effective. And that is what The Economist is unbearable, raising the good question: why shareholders do not say anything?

This crazy situation where shareholders divest themselves to secure the lifestyle of traders, calls for responses "sociological" to this question. In this type of explanation, which gives Godechot Olivier version more sophisticated, there is simply a hold-up. Traders ownership of the assets of their bank (mathematical models, collaborative teams, etc..) And are able to create a favorable balance of power by threatening to leave with these assets.

This reminds us that the issue of economic inequality does not arise longer exclusively or even primarily, in terms of share of value added between capital and labor, but even within the work. Here, the huge economic inequalities that are created by opposing end them employees: employees with very high fees and others who can not make that kind of "hold up". This brings us back

mostly obvious: nothing fundamental has changed in the world of financial activities. It must indeed be naive to believe that we can stop a "hold-up with codes of good conduct and other proclamations solemn. In economics, ethics exists only when embodied in incentive structures, which are still completely lacking here.

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Sociological Reflections on the "Nobel Prize" of Economy

The "Nobel Prize" economy this year is an excellent vintage . It rewards the institutionalist school, which was dominant United States before the war, and who found, from the 1980s, a vibrant, thanks to the work of Williamson. Williamson's ideas, which are a development from those of Coase are the kind that are at once simple, obvious once that someone has written, but that better think a large part of reality.

They allowed the economy to truly open the "black box" of the company, giving a response to the question: why are there companies if the market is a place for optimal coordination? The answer is that getting to the market is sometimes more expensive than producing in a hierarchical organization, but the result of "transaction costs" involved the use of a contract with another player in a market . These costs include for example the risk that the contract is not executed, or that it is evil. If you produce yourself, these risks continue to exist. But then there are new costs associated with managing the organization's hierarchy. In the end, neither the firm nor the market is, in itself, to produce the optimal solution: it depends on what is to happen, and the situation, since this is what will determine what is the least expensive. Williamson's work was to clarify what kept the costs of appeal to the market, and therefore under what circumstances firms prefer to produce in-house.

But rather than pursuing, developing works of the winners, what of other have already fact, I develop some thoughts of a sociological nature, what it means to win a Nobel Prize. The "raw" This year has, indeed, as we shall see, a rich sociological significance.

Prices honorary citizen of a particular rite of passage. Their peculiarity is the sociologically limited number of people accessing it: it is this rarity which base their symbolic value.

Contrary to what some may believe, characteristic of a ceremonial rite, like any rite of passage, is not, essentially, to separate an "elite" of the mass of a population by the "leading economists" of all, numerous economists. Of course, this is an honorary award, and that's how we think. But sociologically, it does more: it tie members of a group that can potentially reach this price, even if it is very unlikely to succeed, those who do will never, under any circumstances. By doing this, it gives a greater symbolic value, not just those who win the prize, but to all those who do not win, but could in principle do so. It also gives them, in turn, an "essence" higher social, since it is their rite potentially accessible. Instead, what can not access are, simply because the price is, symbolically devalued. A rite honorary enhances not only the few individuals who access, but the entire group as these individuals belong, and devalues the individual sub-groups to which they do not belong.

Here, the reference group is that of scientific researchers, especially those working on human societies and their operation. The Nobel Prize in this group, is shared between a subpopulation "economists", because all members can potentially win, and, secondly, all other social scientists, who may never be. Some are "real" scientists, as their discipline is one of those who come with a Nobel Prize. The others are not entirely scientific, since they can not win the Nobel.

That's how we should understand the importance for economists that price: it allowed them to pass on the good side, symbolically valued, the rite of passage. We know, of course, that the "Nobel Prize" of economics is not a Nobel Prize, since it does not appear in the will of Alfred Nobel founder and is not awarded by the Academy Science of Sweden. But everyone forgets the delight of economists who do not like to be reminded, as it is in their social value. Instead, sociologists devote collectively, a true hatred for this award: the fact that they can not access it prohibits any recovery symbolic worst, it devalues them, since it emphasizes that they are not really of science-otherwise they would have a Nobel.

Here is the sociological significance of this year's award for the first time he has been awarded to a woman (another group previously excluded from the rite) and a political scientist. This raises the reflection, which is a form of sociology wild, Steven Levitt . Commenting on the fact that it is a political scientist who has obtained, he wrote:

The Short answer So Is That The Economics Profession IS going to hate the prize going to Ostrom Even More Than Republicans Hated the Peace prize going to Obama . Economists want this year To Be economists' prize (after all, economists are self-intéressée). This award Demonstrates, in a Way That No previous prize has, thats the prize Is Moving Toward a Nobel Prize in Social Science, Not A Nobel in economics.

The winner of this year changes, in fact, sociological significance of the prize: a political scientist has won, so it is that political science is as much a science as economics-and, therefore, this means that the economy has no higher value in social sciences. Things are of course more complex: a winner is not enough to change the nature of a rite of passage. Only can a lasting change in the population that accesses it. Moreover, any rite has a normative dimension: it forces to meet the requisites prescribed for the pass. Here are those of the economics mainstream, which Ostrom is indeed very close. Rather than introducing other social sciences in the fields of economic thinking, the Nobel can instead "economization" these social sciences, including enhancing the assumptions, methods and problems of the economy.

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France will she fail?

Yesterday, looking in my mailbox, and finding there for the first time, a promotional copy of Current Values , I told myself that I had committed a serious error in my life, to be included in the listing and potential clients of this magazine.

But my meditation on my life was brutally interrupted by reading the title of the cover (" government deficits: explosion ") and this assertion :

The warning is clear: without a drastic austerity budget, there is now a real risk of state failure.

I am immediately reassured: Since we've announced, the Apocalypse did not happen and I no doubt politically motivated inherent in this kind of talk.

But, on the other hand, is correct that the current crisis leads to a sharp increase in public debt. In only two quarters of 2009, public debt has increased 6 points of GDP, reaching 74%. It will probably be 77% at the end of the year, against 67% a year earlier. If one follows the latest IMF forecasts, the debt will reach the same 92.6% of GDP in 2014. Under these conditions, the French state will he go bankrupt?

The answer is: there is not any risk of this happening. With any luck, this increase in debt will occur even without pain.

A borrower goes bankrupt when no longer able to meet its commitments. However, the state has an important property as borrower, which distinguishes it from private borrowers: it can simply do not repay the interest on its debt and never the principal. It is indeed eternal, and nobody asked him to repay at some point all of its debt, lest he die without having paid. In fact, the French state has not repaid the principal for over 30 years. The true measure of the ability of the French state to meet its deadlines is constituted by the high interest payments as a proportion of revenue: there will bankrupt the day when the state can no longer finance its expenditure because part too important (but difficult to determine precisely) its revenue will rise in interest payments due.

It was very far at that time (2006-2008) of hysterical debate on public debt. At that time, the proportion of interest payments relative to government revenue was even lower in 20 years, just over 5% in 2006. Representing 2.6% of GDP.

The French government was far from bankruptcy, since it uses only 5.3% of its revenues to pay its creditors, or 2.6% of GDP. It is true that 2.6% of GDP were not allocated to build schools or hospitals, but we see immediately the weight certainly not negligible but in the end that these payments were limited influence on policy.

But what will he in 2014 when the debt will represent 92.6% of GDP? The answer is that we can not know exactly, since this will depend on the evolution of interest rate refinancing the state, which depends on the average interest rate it pays on its debt. The average interest rate on government debt in 2008 was 4.15%. Since interest rates on government securities have fallen sharply : they are the same well below 4% if the government borrows less than 20 years.

It is therefore reasonable to hypothesize that the state will pay on average about 4% interest on its debt. With this assumption, an immediate calculation shows that a 25 point increase in GDP of public debt will result in an increase of 1 percentage point of GDP in interest payments of debt (25 x 0.04).

In the end, the French state will not fit into the unknown prior to bankruptcy: the interest payments will be in proportion to GDP, only slightly higher its historical peak of the postwar period: 3.7% in 2014 against 3.6% in 1996. At the time, this represented 7.1% of revenue: not exactly the situation of a borrower about to go bankrupt, or even an unbearable burden for the prosecution.

Bankruptcy seems even less likely that since 1996, government revenue, in proportion to GDP, fell.

Between 2006 and 2008 alone, revenues fell by 1 percentage point of GDP: exactly what it will find in addition to paying interest in 2014.

But should the government increase the levies mandatory. Gordon Brown has done in the United Kingdom, by passing the top of the income tax from 40% to 50%. Obama is about to make the United States. For France, this increase is moderate after all: it would suffice to find the level prior to the election of N. Sarkozy. It is in this sense that the increase in public debt can be done with a bit of luck, without pain: as far as N. Sarkozy to reverse his tax shield, and as long as interest rates do not increase. First

fragility of the scenario: the evolution of rates. If they rise, the interest payments can become really important. If we assume a slightly less optimistic average rate of 4.5% instead of 4%, interest payments represent a much more significant revenue-although we are still far from bankruptcy.

But the real danger lies elsewhere: if N Sarkozy increases the tax burden, he will finish the TEPA, and the fundamental objective of most of the French right: tax cuts. Plus: this would be a serious political defeat for Sarkozy, who has identified his share to this decline. Yet it is exactly what the economic logic application that has always led to tax increases after an increase in debt due to exceptional circumstances.

It is therefore expected that any other route is chosen: the reduction of public spending, excluding interest payments. In calling for "drastic policy of fiscal austerity" is exactly what demand Current , whose readers are not ready to agree to pass the tax shield, even as it denies them havens. In the meantime, I'm left to hope that the magazine conducts a "drastic austerity policy its advertising budget "and I shall remove from its listings.

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economic causes of the defeat of Germany

A recent television documentary on World War II was a great popular success and critical .

It seems to me that, as many popular documentaries, he has neglected the economic dimension of the conflict, which he has also conveyed a false image. This image is implicit in the figure of Albert Speer , who headed the Department of Arms and war production in 1942, and which appears as the incarnation at once of devotion to Hitler and effectiveness of the Nazi apparatus. Albert Speer is hiding behind a stereotype: that of an orderly and efficient German people, particularly in the economic field, particularly under a dictatorship.

Nothing is further from the truth however: Germany has largely lost the war by economic inefficiency. World War II, more than the first, was an industrial war: win it supposed to have more arms-industrial products-the adversary, and thus produce more. In this game, Germany was more than mediocre: it was almost nil, especially compared with the United States. Germany is indeed that poorly managed and very late to set up a real war economy.

It was, first, unable to increase the overall volume of economic output within the total mobilization implied war.

Apart from the Soviet Union, it was all the belligerents who was least able to increase its economic output. Between 1939 and 1944, the United States perform a virtual economic achievement: they double their economic output, which usually involves decades of growth. Germany increases by just over 10% of its production, despite the requisitions considerable manpower and capital made from the conquered countries.

But there is more: the total economic mobilization involved in the war requires not only increase the volume of production, it also requires transforming existing civilian production to war production: for example, using any steel available to manufacture airplanes, not cars and transform the automobile factories in plant tanks. It goes without saying that such measures are not popular among manufacturers, who pass under the control of the state, nor among the population that suffers when rationing.

Again, the U.S. performance is exceptional : An essential part of the doubling of production was devoted to the war industry. In 1944, a GDP of 182 billion, 96 were devoted to military spending of the state. The United States and produced 86,338 tanks, 297,000 aircraft, 17.4 million rifles and 64 500 ships in four years of war.

Nothing like in Germany, the German leaders were long unable to use to military purposes economic resources previously used to meet civilian needs. The slowness of this conversion can be raised by a number: between February and March 1944, the production of combat aircraft has increased by 48%. This means the potential conversion of resources that still existed in Germany for almost a year before the defeat. This conversion was, in fact, too little too late: it really starts at the end of 1942, when Speer came to power, and that Germany suffered its first defeat.

How to explain this poor performance? Galbraith, the famous economist heterodox, gives us some keys in his time travel economic . Something unfamiliar, he was commissioned by the U.S. government to assess the economic performance of Germany, having played an important role in setting instead of the war economy in the United States.

leading cause paradoxical: the Germans have experienced the good health of their economy before the war. The coming to power of Hitler in 1933 coincides with an economic recovery effect, which almost saved the German crisis of 1929. Nothing like the United States: their economic output in 1939 found only its 1929 level. In Germany, in 1939 it was 50% higher in 1929.

In 1939, the United States are, in fact, not yet out of the crisis: unemployment is 17% and there are huge industrial capacity idle. They will be easy to mobilize economic resources but considerable unused military purposes: in fact, 5 years later, unemployment is over (1%) in the United States. The war effort will be released as the U.S. recession, while assuring them of victory: the "evidence Mars" (Galbraith) the effectiveness of Keynesian stimulus policies.

Nothing like in Germany: the economy is already in full in 1939, using all the resources in manpower and capital available. Any increase in military production implies reduced civilian production: and this, as we have seen, is always difficult, because unpopular.

This implies, on the other hand, whose organizational skills were lacking the Nazi command structure, and the men who was in her head, unlike the U.S., where the best economists in the world were used at that spot.

This is another root cause of economic failure German chaos reigned in this structure, and as noted Harendt, ideology was so strong that a year of defeat, they preferred to send one million of Hungarian Jews to death rather than use them as labor in factories weapons. The German command was more incompetent: he was irrational. And that saved the world.

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The purpose of Wikipedia (III)

The number of new contributors today decreases sharply, while that of regular contributors stagnates. Overall, the number of contributors has followed the following form (called logistic ): exponential growth, then brake harder and harder thereof, to a maximum level.

However, contributors to Wikipedia are to write articles. So one might think that the number of articles follows a similar growth as the number contributors: an exponential growth first, then smaller and smaller, until it becomes zero. It would reach the maximum number of possible items, the sum of knowledge that can write to the world as part of the French Wikipedia.

This growth is the product of three mechanisms:

1) The more articles, most coming from new contributors. The more contributors, the more new items, etc.. This mechanism is responsible for exponential growth.

2) But the more contributors, the fewer new people available to contribute to Wikipedia under the conditions that sets the encyclopedia.

3) And the fewer potential new items to be created, and the less changeable content, since the knowledge of contributors who are willing to contribute to Wikipedia are limited, as are the human knowledge. These last two mechanisms inhibit the growth of the number of items to a maximum.

Now as you can see, this is not what happened.

The item number has followed a logistic curve most of the existence of Wikipedia, but from the end of 2007, growth in the number of articles has certainly decreased, but less quickly than the logistic model would imply.

We understand better what happened, if we look at the number of new articles per month:

As you can see, this number follows fairly closely that predicted by the logistic model up 'in 2007. Then, instead of continuing to decline, the number of new items is stagnating at a relatively close to the historic summit.

is exactly the same thing that occurred to the number of edits per month on the encyclopedia, according to a temporality same:


Therefore, braking mechanisms have not played in full. What happened?

First, it is true that the number of new contributors decline sharply, the number of regular contributors it stagnates, arrivals offset the departures. So there is a fairly constant number of contributors to Wikipedia. The number of editions has therefore certainly no reason to increase, but it did not decline. It stagnates, as the number of contributors.

Second, these contributors continue broadly to create a nearly constant amount of content, even if you press down slightly.

This example shows that the number of edits per month depending on the number of active publishers. Why? Because, despite its nearly one million articles, Wikipedia is far from French toured the whole of human knowledge, as demonstrated elsewhere that the English version has three times as many articles.

But mostly because content knowledge is not fixed: as limited as are the skills of Wikipedia contributors, there will always be enough for the new encyclopedia that grows. As noted by Max Weber ¹ ,

There are sciences which has been given to remain forever young. This is true of all historical disciplines, from all those who ever changing flow of civilization brings new problems incessantly.

From this point of view, it was given to Wikipedia remain forever young. We can therefore predict a gradual decrease in the number of new articles and editing and as exhausted as the subjects may treat Wikipedia contributors, and because the arrival of new contributors, many smaller, not compensate more departures. But this level will never be zero, since the extremely broad range of subjects dealt Wikipedia, some of which are the "flow eternally moving" evoked Weber.

The fact remains that Wikipedia is in the process of beginning to end: the encyclopedia is facing new challenges. The world of exponential growth is completed. It is more an encyclopedia structure experiencing a rapid expansion of its content and its players. Instead, it is likely to limit the decrease in the future the number of regular contributors, and to ensure as much maintenance as content development.

____________________________

1. In the first of its Essays on the Theory of Science available here , page 153 of the PDF.

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Hi! Since the last time, adventure, believe me, I lived a few.

First of all: I walk from my 14 and a half months ... I explore, I climb as I run and I give a few gray hairs to my parents who are forced to look at me ... All The Time.

Otherwise, holidays in Crete were topissimes but unfortunately, there are more traces ... the pictures were erased ... pfff, parents no longer what it was!

Luckily, here are the latest pictures of my vacation in Pyla ...

Dad and his friends dug a great pool ... quickly backfilled by the tide!

moment of total relaxation with Isa ...

It is so .....

brief ... I put a little option in 20 years ... if she still wants me

Small visit Julie and Frank, cousins Mom

Summit Meeting! the agenda of the G2: interest and pedagogy of plastic toys on board baby strollers.

The stroller is a girl toy? you laugh: there are wheels and a handlebar ... it sure is for guys like me!

With my buddies ...

Chabadabada....

Kisses tutti!

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Blogger or Globe trotter? Like a big

Blogger is nice but with the arrival of spring (quoique. ..), I chose globetrotter ... Finally, it is especially mom and dad decided to let me do the Tour de France in two months lap top. Go hop hang on and follow me ...

Easter in Alsace (sun in my wallet) in Papili and Mamili ...

Sacred

prankster rabbit that hides eggs ...

is my cousin Elsa m helped him find the nest ... Yes, rabbits lay eggs in a nest .... and marmot ....

After that we went to a family reunion in the Auvergne region of anthology: that Fabre ... and associated ...

look good: I'm down on the left ... nah, I have not chosen the less pretty!

Then it was the turn of the Gironde ... tata's birthday Zaza

and there I saw the sea for the first time ... Yeah, I reserve my opinion for this summer because then I have not even been allowed to soak the beginning of a stroller wheel!

Zaza For Mom and Dad sang a song ... pt'ite I A - OD - D (it's not like I stopped my ears ostensibly) ...

Back to Issy and zor: departure for the Drome for 10 years of marriage godmother Caro and Ben ... It was funny though:

dad explained to me: left foot forward and right foot ... then left foot and right foot ... everyone thinks it's easy ... pfff whatever ... I prefer to wait to be absolutely sure that the floor of the cows (meuuuuuuhhhh) is something completely stable.

... not even afraid of the little doggie

GO TCHO guys and girls, in two weeks I go in the Doubs and then to Angers, re-l'auvergne and finally ... Ridge this summer (I drool impatient ... unless this is my 9th tooth)

Lots of big jets at all .....