Wednesday, September 30, 2009

How To Remove Pvc Primer

economic causes of the defeat of Germany

A recent television documentary on World War II was a great popular success and critical .

It seems to me that, as many popular documentaries, he has neglected the economic dimension of the conflict, which he has also conveyed a false image. This image is implicit in the figure of Albert Speer , who headed the Department of Arms and war production in 1942, and which appears as the incarnation at once of devotion to Hitler and effectiveness of the Nazi apparatus. Albert Speer is hiding behind a stereotype: that of an orderly and efficient German people, particularly in the economic field, particularly under a dictatorship.

Nothing is further from the truth however: Germany has largely lost the war by economic inefficiency. World War II, more than the first, was an industrial war: win it supposed to have more arms-industrial products-the adversary, and thus produce more. In this game, Germany was more than mediocre: it was almost nil, especially compared with the United States. Germany is indeed that poorly managed and very late to set up a real war economy.

It was, first, unable to increase the overall volume of economic output within the total mobilization implied war.

Apart from the Soviet Union, it was all the belligerents who was least able to increase its economic output. Between 1939 and 1944, the United States perform a virtual economic achievement: they double their economic output, which usually involves decades of growth. Germany increases by just over 10% of its production, despite the requisitions considerable manpower and capital made from the conquered countries.

But there is more: the total economic mobilization involved in the war requires not only increase the volume of production, it also requires transforming existing civilian production to war production: for example, using any steel available to manufacture airplanes, not cars and transform the automobile factories in plant tanks. It goes without saying that such measures are not popular among manufacturers, who pass under the control of the state, nor among the population that suffers when rationing.

Again, the U.S. performance is exceptional : An essential part of the doubling of production was devoted to the war industry. In 1944, a GDP of 182 billion, 96 were devoted to military spending of the state. The United States and produced 86,338 tanks, 297,000 aircraft, 17.4 million rifles and 64 500 ships in four years of war.

Nothing like in Germany, the German leaders were long unable to use to military purposes economic resources previously used to meet civilian needs. The slowness of this conversion can be raised by a number: between February and March 1944, the production of combat aircraft has increased by 48%. This means the potential conversion of resources that still existed in Germany for almost a year before the defeat. This conversion was, in fact, too little too late: it really starts at the end of 1942, when Speer came to power, and that Germany suffered its first defeat.

How to explain this poor performance? Galbraith, the famous economist heterodox, gives us some keys in his time travel economic . Something unfamiliar, he was commissioned by the U.S. government to assess the economic performance of Germany, having played an important role in setting instead of the war economy in the United States.

leading cause paradoxical: the Germans have experienced the good health of their economy before the war. The coming to power of Hitler in 1933 coincides with an economic recovery effect, which almost saved the German crisis of 1929. Nothing like the United States: their economic output in 1939 found only its 1929 level. In Germany, in 1939 it was 50% higher in 1929.

In 1939, the United States are, in fact, not yet out of the crisis: unemployment is 17% and there are huge industrial capacity idle. They will be easy to mobilize economic resources but considerable unused military purposes: in fact, 5 years later, unemployment is over (1%) in the United States. The war effort will be released as the U.S. recession, while assuring them of victory: the "evidence Mars" (Galbraith) the effectiveness of Keynesian stimulus policies.

Nothing like in Germany: the economy is already in full in 1939, using all the resources in manpower and capital available. Any increase in military production implies reduced civilian production: and this, as we have seen, is always difficult, because unpopular.

This implies, on the other hand, whose organizational skills were lacking the Nazi command structure, and the men who was in her head, unlike the U.S., where the best economists in the world were used at that spot.

This is another root cause of economic failure German chaos reigned in this structure, and as noted Harendt, ideology was so strong that a year of defeat, they preferred to send one million of Hungarian Jews to death rather than use them as labor in factories weapons. The German command was more incompetent: he was irrational. And that saved the world.

Thursday, September 24, 2009

Pros And Cons To Convection O

The purpose of Wikipedia (III)

The number of new contributors today decreases sharply, while that of regular contributors stagnates. Overall, the number of contributors has followed the following form (called logistic ): exponential growth, then brake harder and harder thereof, to a maximum level.

However, contributors to Wikipedia are to write articles. So one might think that the number of articles follows a similar growth as the number contributors: an exponential growth first, then smaller and smaller, until it becomes zero. It would reach the maximum number of possible items, the sum of knowledge that can write to the world as part of the French Wikipedia.

This growth is the product of three mechanisms:

1) The more articles, most coming from new contributors. The more contributors, the more new items, etc.. This mechanism is responsible for exponential growth.

2) But the more contributors, the fewer new people available to contribute to Wikipedia under the conditions that sets the encyclopedia.

3) And the fewer potential new items to be created, and the less changeable content, since the knowledge of contributors who are willing to contribute to Wikipedia are limited, as are the human knowledge. These last two mechanisms inhibit the growth of the number of items to a maximum.

Now as you can see, this is not what happened.

The item number has followed a logistic curve most of the existence of Wikipedia, but from the end of 2007, growth in the number of articles has certainly decreased, but less quickly than the logistic model would imply.

We understand better what happened, if we look at the number of new articles per month:

As you can see, this number follows fairly closely that predicted by the logistic model up 'in 2007. Then, instead of continuing to decline, the number of new items is stagnating at a relatively close to the historic summit.

is exactly the same thing that occurred to the number of edits per month on the encyclopedia, according to a temporality same:


Therefore, braking mechanisms have not played in full. What happened?

First, it is true that the number of new contributors decline sharply, the number of regular contributors it stagnates, arrivals offset the departures. So there is a fairly constant number of contributors to Wikipedia. The number of editions has therefore certainly no reason to increase, but it did not decline. It stagnates, as the number of contributors.

Second, these contributors continue broadly to create a nearly constant amount of content, even if you press down slightly.

This example shows that the number of edits per month depending on the number of active publishers. Why? Because, despite its nearly one million articles, Wikipedia is far from French toured the whole of human knowledge, as demonstrated elsewhere that the English version has three times as many articles.

But mostly because content knowledge is not fixed: as limited as are the skills of Wikipedia contributors, there will always be enough for the new encyclopedia that grows. As noted by Max Weber 1 ,

There are sciences which has been given to remain forever young. This is true of all historical disciplines, from all those who ever changing flow of civilization brings new problems incessantly.
From this point of view, it was given to Wikipedia remain forever young. We can therefore predict a gradual decrease in the number of new articles and editing and as exhausted as the subjects may treat Wikipedia contributors, and because the arrival of new contributors, many smaller, not compensate more departures. But this level will never be zero, since the extremely broad range of subjects dealt Wikipedia, some of which are the "flow eternally moving" evoked Weber.

The fact remains that Wikipedia is in the process of beginning to end: the encyclopedia is facing new challenges. The world of exponential growth is completed. It is more an encyclopedia structure experiencing a rapid expansion of its content and its players. Instead, it is likely to limit the decrease in the future the number of regular contributors, and to ensure as much maintenance as content development.

____________________________

1. In the first of its Essays on the Theory of Science available here , page 153 of the PDF.

Sunday, September 20, 2009

Blood After Dog Deficates




Hi! Since the last time, adventure, believe me, I lived a few.
First of all: I walk from my 14 and a half months ... I explore, I climb as I run and I give a few gray hairs to my parents who are forced to look at me ... All The Time.
Otherwise, holidays in Crete were topissimes but unfortunately, there are more traces ... the pictures were erased ... pfff, parents no longer what it was!
Luckily, here are the latest pictures of my vacation in Pyla ...






Dad and his friends dug a great pool ... quickly backfilled by the tide!















moment of total relaxation with Isa ...
It is so .....
brief ... I put a little option in 20 years ... if she still wants me













Small visit Julie and Frank, cousins Mom













Summit Meeting! the agenda of the G2: interest and pedagogy of plastic toys on board baby strollers.












The stroller is a girl toy? you laugh: there are wheels and a handlebar ... it sure is for guys like me!



















With my buddies ...


























Chabadabada....







Kisses tutti!